The current confrontational environment between Brasília and Washington raises uncertainties regarding its short-term impacts on Brazil. On the economic front, tariffs directly affect the real economy. Although there are sector-specific exceptions, the 50% levy on a significant set of Brazilian exports pressures margins and planning, with particularly sensitive effects on industry—already characterized by low integration into global value chains and limited capacity to redirect sales in the short term. While the United States records a bilateral trade surplus, the current design of measures increases costs and uncertainty for Brazilian companies.
Domestically, politics faces tensions typical of large liberal democracies, with high polarization and narratives challenging the authority of judicial institutions. In this context, recent U.S. actions—perceived as unusually partial in the Brazilian political dispute and supported by economic instruments to induce change—have further complicated the environment, one year ahead of the 2026 electoral race.
Given this scenario of uncertainty, CEBRI and Eurasia propose a closed-door event, conducted under Chatham House rules, for a selected audience, to discuss political and economic scenarios over the short- and medium-term horizon, map risks, assess potential implications for 2026, and explore strategic responses for governments and productive sectors.
10am (BRT)
Portuguese
The current confrontational environment between Brasília and Washington raises uncertainties regarding its short-term impacts on Brazil. On the economic front, tariffs directly affect the real economy. Although there are sector-specific exceptions, the 50% levy on a significant set of Brazilian exports pressures margins and planning, with particularly sensitive effects on industry—already characterized by low integration into global value chains and limited capacity to redirect sales in the short term. While the United States records a bilateral trade surplus, the current design of measures increases costs and uncertainty for Brazilian companies.
Domestically, politics faces tensions typical of large liberal democracies, with high polarization and narratives challenging the authority of judicial institutions. In this context, recent U.S. actions—perceived as unusually partial in the Brazilian political dispute and supported by economic instruments to induce change—have further complicated the environment, one year ahead of the 2026 electoral race.
Given this scenario of uncertainty, CEBRI and Eurasia propose a closed-door event, conducted under Chatham House rules, for a selected audience, to discuss political and economic scenarios over the short- and medium-term horizon, map risks, assess potential implications for 2026, and explore strategic responses for governments and productive sectors.