The initiative, organized by CEBRI, aimed to analyze the escalation of the Iranian crisis following the protests that began in December 2025, examining its domestic, regional, and systemic dimensions. The document is structured around three core axes: (i) the regime’s crisis of legitimacy and the domestic socioeconomic collapse, marked by high inflation, state repression, and institutional fragility; (ii) the regional impacts of Iranian instability, including the weakening of proxy networks, the reconfiguration of the “axis of resistance,” and the risks to the Middle East’s security architecture; and (iii) the role of major powers — the United States, China, and Russia — in managing, instrumentalizing, and containing the crisis within a context of global hegemonic transition. The analysis points to a scenario of high volatility, in which the combination of internal repression, regional fragmentation, and great-power competition increases the risks of military escalation, state collapse, and systemic effects on the international order.

The document consolidates the main debates, assessments, and strategic recommendations discussed during the meeting, emphasizing the centrality of diplomatic de-escalation, the rejection of externally driven regime-change strategies, the prioritization of an endogenous and gradual transformation of the Iranian political system, and the need for regional and multilateral coordination to contain energy, humanitarian, and security risks. The crisis is treated as a systemic international risk whose management requires integrated, long-term responses that combine diplomacy, regional stability, energy security, and global governance, while avoiding both state fragmentation and the geopolitical instrumentalization of the conflict.